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Realistic EV Calculation Most bonuses are −EV after wagering 10 sportsbooks compared

Bonus Calculator · EV After Wagering

Headline "$1,500 bonus" tells you almost nothing. The real value depends on rollover requirements, minimum odds constraints, bet type restrictions, and the book's house edge. This calculator computes actual expected value after meeting wagering terms.

ⓘ Affiliate disclosure: Pulsebetty earns commission on signups via "Claim Bonus" links. Affiliate status does not influence EV calculations — math is math. Full methodology below.
🎁 Configure Your Strategy
$
USD or equivalent in your currency
decimal
Typical: 1.80-2.20. Higher odds = higher variance per bet
0.0%
−3% = casual loser · 0% = market efficient · +3% = sharp winner
Some bonuses expire before you can clear them — affects feasibility
Best Realistic EV
+$0
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Headline vs Realistic Gap
$0
Average across all books
Books With +EV Bonuses
0 / 10
— with −EV bonuses
Best Strategy
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Based on your inputs
Book Headline Type Rollover Min Odds Bonus House Edge Wagering Cost Realistic EV Action

How EV is Calculated

1 Bonus Amount

For deposit-match bonuses: min(deposit × match_pct, max_bonus). For free bets: the face value adjusted by ~0.75× because stake isn't returned on winning bets.

bonus = min($100 × 100%, $100) = $100
2 Wagering Requirement

Total amount you must bet to unlock the bonus. rollover × (deposit + bonus) for D+B rollover, or rollover × bonus for B-only rollover. Most books use the more demanding D+B variant.

wagering = 10 × ($100 + $100) = $2,000
3 House Edge per Bet

The book's margin distributed across bet odds. At decimal odds 2.00 with 6% market margin, your bet has ~3% house edge. Higher min odds = higher variance but typically also higher edge.

house_edge = margin% / 2 at odds 2.00 = 3.0%
4 Realistic EV

Expected loss to the bookmaker over the wagering volume. The bonus minus that loss is your realized value. Add your CLV skill back if you beat the market.

EV = bonus − (wagering × house_edge) + (wagering × CLV)

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a wagering requirement?+
Wagering (or "rollover") is the total amount you must bet before withdrawing bonus funds. A $100 bonus with 10x rollover means $1,000 in total bets. The higher the rollover, the lower the bonus's realized value due to accumulated house edge over many bets.
What does "min odds 1.5" mean?+
Most bonus terms require qualifying bets at minimum odds — typically 1.50 (-200 American) or 1.80 (-125 American). This prevents bettors from clearing rollover with safe low-odds bets. The higher the min odds, the higher the variance and house edge per bet.
How is the EV calculated?+
Expected Value = Bonus Amount − (Wagering Requirement × Average House Edge) + (Wagering × CLV skill). House edge is derived from the book's margin and your bet odds. For example: $100 bonus, 10x rollover ($2,000 wagering), 3% house edge at odds 2.00 = $100 − $60 = $40 realistic value. Lower margins + lower rollover + lower min odds = higher EV.
Are bonuses worth it?+
Sometimes yes, sometimes no. A $1,500 Parimatch bonus with 1x play-through is much better than a $1,000 bonus with 25x play-through. Always check terms before depositing. Bonuses with high rollover, short expiry, and min odds 2.0+ often have negative EV against typical bettors.
What's a "free bet" vs "deposit match"?+
A deposit match credits you bonus funds equal to a percentage of your deposit, typically 100% up to a cap. A free bet (stake-not-returned) means you place a bet but only the winnings come back to you — the stake is consumed. Free bets are worth ~75% of their face value due to the lost stake on winning bets.