18 NOV 2023
1–1
🇪🇸 Spain · 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Friendly · Morata & Vecino goals
Pulse Engine v3.4
Updated May 22
Group H · Matchday 2
World #1 meets CONMEBOL stalwart
🇪🇸FIFA #1
Spain
Euro 2024 champions · De la Fuente
Win
1.85
VS
Wed, 24 Jun 2026
11:00 PDT · Lumen Field, Seattle
Draw 3.50
🇺🇾FIFA #11
Uruguay
Copa América 2024 SF · Bielsa
Win
4.20
Spain vs Uruguay — AI Prediction, Odds & Pick
Spain is FIFA's #1 ranked team and the Euro 2024 champions, but Uruguay under Marcelo Bielsa remains one of the most tactically organised sides in football. The pace duel between Lamine Yamal and Uruguay's high defensive line should produce chances both ways. Our model rates the match at 52.5% Spain win, 26.0% draw, 21.5% Uruguay win.
AI Top Pick
Lamine Yamal Anytime Scorer
Strongest edge in market · 1xBet best price
35.5%
Model Confidence
3.40
Decimal Odds
Pre-match
Match Facts & Conditions
Kickoff
11:00 PDT
14:00 EDT · 19:00 BST · 20:00 CEST
Venue
Lumen Field
Seattle
Competition
FIFA WC 2026
Group H · Matchday 2
AI Engine
v3.4 · 64.2% acc
10,000 Monte Carlo sims
Methodology
How Pulse Engine Built This Prediction
AI
vPulse Engine v3.4 build 2614 · build 2614
Pulse Engine — Monte Carlo Match Simulator
Ingests 240++ data points per match and runs 10,000 simulations to produce probability distributions across match outcome, score, and player props. Historical accuracy tracked publicly since v2.0 launch (2024).
10,000
Simulations
64.2%
Match Accuracy
71.4%
O/U Accuracy
240++
Input Data Points
Inputs include: E · l · o · · r · a · t · i · n · g · s · · · · · L · a · s · t · · 1 · 0 · · m · a · t · c · h · e · s · · p · e · r · · t · e · a · m · · · · · H · e · a · d · - · t · o · - · h · e · a · d · · r · e · c · o · r · d · · · · · L · i · n · e · u · p · · c · o · n · f · i · d · e · n · c · e · · · · · I · n · j · u · r · y · · & · · s · u · s · p · e · n · s · i · o · n · · d · a · t · a · · · · · W · e · a · t · h · e · r · · f · o · r · e · c · a · s · t · · · · · M · o · t · i · v · a · t · i · o · n · · i · n · d · e · x · · ( · g · r · o · u · p · · s · t · a · k · e · s · ) · · · · · R · e · f · e · r · e · e · · t · e · n · d · e · n · c · i · e · s · · · · · V · e · n · u · e · · e · f · f · e · c · t · s · · · · · x · G · · h · i · s · t · o · r · y · · · · · S · e · t · - · p · i · e · c · e · · e · f · f · i · c · i · e · n · c · y · · · · · P · r · e · s · s · i · n · g · · i · n · t · e · n · s · i · t · y · · · · · T · r · a · v · e · l · · f · a · t · i · g · u · e · ..
Match Outcome
1X2 Probability Distribution
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
🇪🇸 Spain Win
52.5%
Model probability
Market odds1.85
Implied prob54.1%
Edge-1.5%
Draw
26.0%
Model probability
Market odds3.50
Implied prob28.6%
Edge-2.6%
🇺🇾 Uruguay Win
21.5%
Model probability
Market odds4.20
Implied prob23.8%
Edge-2.3%
Top Recommendations
5 Best AI Picks Ranked by Edge
Edge = Model probability − Market implied probability
| # | Bet | Odds | Model % | Implied % | Edge | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamine Yamal Anytime Scorer | 3.40 | 35.5% | 29.4% | +20.7% | Skip | BET |
| 2 | Álvaro Morata Anytime Scorer | 2.80 | 38.2% | 35.7% | +7.0% | Skip | BET |
| 3 | Darwin Núñez Anytime Scorer | 3.20 | 32.5% | 31.3% | +3.8% | Skip | BET |
| 4 | Nico Williams Anytime Scorer | 3.50 | 29.8% | 28.6% | +4.2% | Skip | BET |
| 5 | Federico Valverde Anytime Scorer | 5.50 | 18.5% | 18.2% | +1.6% | Skip | BET |
Correct Score
Score Probability Heatmap
Spain goals (rows) × Uruguay goals (columns) · % from 10k simulations
Score Distribution Matrix
0%20%
E\U
0
1
2
3
4+
0
4.8
6.5
3.8
1.4
0.4
1
10.8
13.2
7.2
2.4
0.7
2
12.4
12.8
5.9
1.9
0.5
3
5.5
5.2
2.3
0.7
0.2
4+
1.2
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
Top 5 Most Likely Scorelines
1–1
13.2%
2–1
12.8%
2–0
12.4%
1–0
10.8%
1–2
7.2%
Goals Model
Expected Goals (xG) Breakdown
Modeled chance creation × conversion rate per team
🇪🇸
Spain
1.7Projected xG
Shots projected
13.8
Shots on target
5.1
Big chances
3.3
Conversion rate
12.3%
xG from set pieces
0.4
Clean sheet prob
21.9%
🇺🇾
Uruguay
1.3Projected xG
Shots projected
10.5
Shots on target
3.9
Big chances
2.5
Conversion rate
12.4%
xG from set pieces
0.4
Clean sheet prob
18.5%
Goalscorer Markets
Top 10 Anytime Scorer Probabilities
Includes shots on target, big chances, penalty involvement, and substitution probability
| Player | Pos | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇪🇸Lamine Yamal |
RW | 35.5% | 3.40 | 29.4% | +20.7% | BET |
🇪🇸Álvaro Morata |
ST | 38.2% | 2.80 | 35.7% | +7.0% | BET |
🇺🇾Darwin Núñez |
ST | 32.5% | 3.20 | 31.3% | +3.8% | BET |
🇪🇸Nico Williams |
LW | 29.8% | 3.50 | 28.6% | +4.2% | BET |
🇺🇾Federico Valverde |
CM | 18.5% | 5.50 | 18.2% | +1.6% | BET |
🇪🇸Pedri |
AM | 16.2% | 6.00 | 16.7% | -3.0% | BET |
🇺🇾Maximiliano Araújo |
LW | 14.8% | 7.00 | 14.3% | +3.5% | BET |
🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal |
LW | 13.5% | 7.50 | 13.3% | +1.5% | BET |
🇺🇾Facundo Pellistri |
RW | 11.2% | 9.00 | 11.1% | +0.9% | BET |
🇪🇸Mikel Merino |
CM | 9.8% | 10.00 | 10.0% | -2.0% | BET |
All-Time Record
Spain vs Uruguay Head-to-Head
Uruguay 4W · 4D · 4L · GF 13 · GA 13
08 JUN 2011
3–3
🇪🇸 Spain · 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Friendly · Forlán scored twice
29 JUN 2013
2–1
🇪🇸 Spain · 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Confederations Cup SF · Pedro & Negredo
17 OCT 2007
1–0
🇪🇸 Spain · 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Friendly · Villa winner late
08 SEP 2002
1–3
🇺🇾 Uruguay · 🇪🇸 Spain
Friendly · Raúl brace · Bilbao
Form Guide
Last 5 Competitive Matches
🇪🇸SpainW-D-W-W-L
W
3–0
Jun 18
vs 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
WC 2026 Group H Matchday 1
D
1–2 (Loss)
Mar 27, 2026
vs 🇦🇷 Argentina
Finalissima 2026
W
2–1
Nov 2025
vs 🇩🇪 Germany
UEFA Nations League SF
W
2–0
Oct 2025
vs 🇮🇹 Italy
UEFA Nations League
L
1–2
Sep 2025
vs 🇫🇷 France
Friendly
🇺🇾UruguayW-W-D-L-W
W
2–0
Jun 19
vs 🇨🇻 Cape Verde
WC 2026 Group H Matchday 1
W
2–1
Nov 2025
vs 🇨🇱 Chile
WC Qualifier CONMEBOL
D
1–1
Oct 2025
vs 🇧🇷 Brazil
WC Qualifier CONMEBOL
L
0–1
Mar 2025
vs 🇦🇷 Argentina
WC Qualifier CONMEBOL
W
2–0
Mar 2026
vs 🇵🇾 Paraguay
Friendly
Player Spotlight
Key Players Analysis
🇪🇸 Spain · Key Players
Lamine Yamal
RWBarcelona · Age 18 · Wonderkid
21
Goals 25/26
16
Assists
0.59
xG/90
Pedri
AMBarcelona · Age 23 · Maestro
9
Goals 25/26
12
Assists
92%
Pass acc
Rodri
DMManchester City · Age 30 · Ballon d'Or 2024
6
Goals 25/26
94%
Pass acc
2.4
Intcpts/90
🇺🇾 Uruguay · Key Players
Federico Valverde
CMReal Madrid · Age 28 · Captain
13
Goals 25/26
7
Assists
11.8
Dist/90 km
Darwin Núñez
STAl-Hilal · Age 27 · Striker
14
Goals 25/26
5
Assists
0.58
xG/90
Rodrigo Bentancur
CMTottenham · Age 29 · Engine
5
Goals 25/26
85%
Pass acc
2.9
Tackles/90
Tactical Preview
Predicted Lineups & Key Duels
🇪🇸Spain4-3-3
GKUnai Simón
DEFCarvajal · Le Normand · Laporte · Cucurella
MIDRodri · Pedri · Merino
ATKYamal · Morata · Nico Williams
🇺🇾Uruguay4-3-3
GKRochet
DEFNández · Giménez · Olivera · Viña
MIDValverde · Bentancur · Ugarte
ATKPellistri · Núñez · Araújo
Key Individual Duels
Lamine Yamal
ESP · RW
Mathías Olivera
URU · LB
Marquee duel — Yamal's 18 dribbles attempted per 90 vs Uruguay's tactical LB. The market underprices how often Yamal beats his man and earns shooting positions or set pieces.
Darwin Núñez
URU · ST
Aymeric Laporte
ESP · CB
Pace duel — Núñez's 5.6 sprints/90 stretches Spain's high line. Laporte's recovery pace declining, key why Le Normand started ahead.
Rodri
ESP · DM
Federico Valverde
URU · CM
Pivot duel — Rodri's positional discipline vs Valverde's box-to-box energy. Whoever wins the central press dictates Spain's buildup tempo.
Pedri
ESP · AM
Manuel Ugarte
URU · CM
Receive-and-progress — Pedri receives between lines; Ugarte's pressing tries to break his rhythm. Uruguay sit deep when Pedri receives, gambling on Spain shooting from range.
Best Odds for This Match
Where to Bet on Spain vs Uruguay
Odds compared for Lamine Yamal Anytime Scorer (top AI pick)
1x
1xBet
Lamine Yamal Anytime Scorer
3.40
PM
Parimatch
Lamine Yamal Anytime Scorer
3.33
BC
BC.Game
Lamine Yamal Anytime Scorer
3.28
Editorial
Marco Rossi's Take
MR
European Football Editor
Spain are the deserving favourites — Euro 2024 winners, World #1 ranking, and one of the most cohesive midfields in football with Rodri-Pedri-Merino working since 2022. But Bielsa's Uruguay isn't 2010-era pragmatic counter-attacking; this is genuinely well-coached high-pressing football that beat Brazil in qualification and pushed Argentina close. The 1.85 on Spain is fair but the genuine edge is on Lamine Yamal. The 17-year-old (now 18 in WC) torched defenders all season at Barcelona — 21 goals + 16 assists in 25/26. Uruguay's LB Mathías Olivera is solid but not pacey enough to handle Yamal 1v1, and Bielsa's instructions to press high mean lots of space behind. The 3.40 on Yamal anytime scoring is generous — model says 35.5%, market 29.4%. Edge of +20% on a player who scores 0.43 goals/90 internationally is the cleanest single bet in Group H.
The Pick
Lamine Yamal Anytime Scorer
3.40
Common Questions
Spain vs Uruguay FAQ
Who is the favourite — Spain or Uruguay?
Spain is the favourite at 1.85 odds with our model rating them 52.5% to win. Uruguay is rated 21.5% at 4.20 odds, with a 26.0% draw probability at 3.50. The market is fair across all three outcomes.
What time does Spain vs Uruguay start?
Kickoff is 11:00 PDT at Lumen Field, Seattle. That's 14:00 EDT (Eastern), 19:00 BST (UK), 20:00 CEST (Madrid), 15:00 UYT (Montevideo). Seattle's pitch dimensions favour wide attacking play.
Will Lamine Yamal score in this match?
Our model rates Yamal 35.5% to score (odds 3.40, edge +20%). The 18-year-old finished 2025-26 with 21 goals + 16 assists at Barcelona, and Uruguay's high defensive line under Bielsa creates exactly the 1v1 chances Yamal converts most reliably.
Where can I watch Spain vs Uruguay?
Coverage varies by region. In the US: Fox Sports + Telemundo. In the UK: BBC. In Spain: RTVE La 1. In Uruguay: Teledoce. Internationally: 1xBet offers free live streaming to registered account holders.
What is the AI prediction confidence?
Our top pick (Yamal anytime scorer at 3.40) carries 35.5% confidence — high for a 3.40 underdog selection. Match outcome confidence at 52.5% for Spain is moderate; Uruguay's tactical organisation makes this less of a Spain runaway than the FIFA ranking suggests.
How does Pulse Engine v3.4 predict matches?
The model ingests 240+ data points per match including Elo ratings, last 10 matches per team, head-to-head records, lineup confidence, injury reports, weather, motivation indices, referee tendencies, and venue effects. It runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to produce probability distributions. Historical accuracy on 2024-25 matches: 64.2% on match outcome, 71.4% on goals over/under markets.
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