25 MAR 2023
2–1
🇲🇦 Morocco · 🇧🇷 Brazil
Friendly · Morocco's first ever win — Boufal & Sabiri goals
FULL TIMEBrazil 1 – 1 Morocco✗ Model favoured a Brazil win (56.0%) — full-time: 1–1 draw✓ AI top pick Vinícius Júnior (anytime scorer) — scored
Pulse Engine v3.4
FULL TIME · Sat, 13 Jun 2026
Group C · Matchday 2
Ancelotti's Brazil debut faces Morocco's 2022 semifinalists
🇧🇷FIFA #5
Brazil
5x World Champions · Ancelotti
Win
1.70
VS
Sat, 13 Jun 2026
14:00 PDT · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Draw 3.80
🇲🇦FIFA #12
Morocco
2022 SF · Regragui
Win
5.00
Brazil vs Morocco — AI Prediction, Odds & Pick
Carlo Ancelotti's first World Cup with Brazil meets the side that knocked out Spain and Portugal in 2022. Morocco's defensive structure under Walid Regragui remains elite — they conceded just 5 goals in 17 qualifiers. But Brazil under Ancelotti has rediscovered Vinícius Júnior's between-lines runs. Our model rates the match at 56.0% Brazil win, 24.0% draw, 20.0% Morocco win.
AI Top Pick
Vinícius Anytime Scorer
Strongest edge in market · 1xBet best price
48.5%
Model Confidence
2.20
Decimal Odds
Pre-match
Match Facts & Conditions
Kickoff
14:00 PDT
17:00 EDT · 22:00 BST · 23:00 CEST
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Santa Clara
Competition
FIFA WC 2026
Group C · Matchday 2
AI Engine
v3.4 · 64.2% acc
10,000 Monte Carlo sims
Methodology
How Pulse Engine Built This Prediction
AI
vPulse Engine v3.4 build 2614 · build 2614
Pulse Engine — Monte Carlo Match Simulator
Ingests 240++ data points per match and runs 10,000 simulations to produce probability distributions across match outcome, score, and player props. Historical accuracy tracked publicly since v2.0 launch (2024).
10,000
Simulations
64.2%
Match Accuracy
71.4%
O/U Accuracy
240++
Input Data Points
Inputs include: E · l · o · · r · a · t · i · n · g · s · · · · · L · a · s · t · · 1 · 0 · · m · a · t · c · h · e · s · · p · e · r · · t · e · a · m · · · · · H · e · a · d · - · t · o · - · h · e · a · d · · r · e · c · o · r · d · · · · · L · i · n · e · u · p · · c · o · n · f · i · d · e · n · c · e · · · · · I · n · j · u · r · y · · & · · s · u · s · p · e · n · s · i · o · n · · d · a · t · a · · · · · W · e · a · t · h · e · r · · f · o · r · e · c · a · s · t · · · · · M · o · t · i · v · a · t · i · o · n · · i · n · d · e · x · · ( · g · r · o · u · p · · s · t · a · k · e · s · ) · · · · · R · e · f · e · r · e · e · · t · e · n · d · e · n · c · i · e · s · · · · · V · e · n · u · e · · e · f · f · e · c · t · s · · · · · x · G · · h · i · s · t · o · r · y · · · · · S · e · t · - · p · i · e · c · e · · e · f · f · i · c · i · e · n · c · y · · · · · P · r · e · s · s · i · n · g · · i · n · t · e · n · s · i · t · y · · · · · T · r · a · v · e · l · · f · a · t · i · g · u · e · ..
Match Outcome
1X2 Probability Distribution
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
🇧🇷 Brazil Win
56.0%
Model probability
Market odds1.70
Implied prob58.8%
Edge-2.8%
Draw
24.0%
Model probability
Market odds3.80
Implied prob26.3%
Edge-2.3%
🇲🇦 Morocco Win
20.0%
Model probability
Market odds5.00
Implied prob20.0%
Edge+0.0%
Top Recommendations
5 Best AI Picks Ranked by Edge
Edge = Model probability − Market implied probability
| # | Bet | Odds | Model % | Implied % | Edge | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinícius Júnior Anytime Scorer | 2.20 | 48.5% | 45.5% | +6.6% | Medium | BET |
| 2 | Raphinha Anytime Scorer | 2.50 | 38.5% | 40.0% | -3.8% | Skip | BET |
| 3 | João Pedro Anytime Scorer | 3.00 | 32.8% | 33.3% | -1.5% | Skip | BET |
| 4 | Achraf Hakimi Anytime Scorer | 7.50 | 14.5% | 13.3% | +9.0% | Skip | BET |
| 5 | Hakim Ziyech Anytime Scorer | 5.50 | 18.2% | 18.2% | +0.0% | Skip | BET |
Correct Score
Score Probability Heatmap
Brazil goals (rows) × Morocco goals (columns) · % from 10k simulations
Score Distribution Matrix
0%20%
B\M
0
1
2
3
4+
0
4.5
5.8
3.2
1.1
0.3
1
11.5
12.8
6.5
2.1
0.6
2
12.2
11.8
5.5
1.7
0.5
3
6.8
5.5
2.4
0.8
0.2
4+
1.5
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
Top 5 Most Likely Scorelines
1–1
12.8%
2–0
12.2%
2–1
11.8%
1–0
11.5%
1–2
6.5%
Goals Model
Expected Goals (xG) Breakdown
Modeled chance creation × conversion rate per team
🇧🇷
Brazil
1.7Projected xG
Shots projected
14.1
Shots on target
5.2
Big chances
3.4
Conversion rate
12.1%
xG from set pieces
0.4
Clean sheet prob
23.2%
🇲🇦
Morocco
1.2Projected xG
Shots projected
9.8
Shots on target
3.6
Big chances
2.3
Conversion rate
12.2%
xG from set pieces
0.5
Clean sheet prob
16.5%
Goalscorer Markets
Top 10 Anytime Scorer Probabilities
Includes shots on target, big chances, penalty involvement, and substitution probability
| Player | Pos | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇧🇷Vinícius Júnior |
LW | 48.5% | 2.20 | 45.5% | +6.6% | BET |
🇧🇷Raphinha |
RW | 38.5% | 2.50 | 40.0% | -3.8% | BET |
🇧🇷João Pedro |
ST | 32.8% | 3.00 | 33.3% | -1.5% | BET |
🇲🇦Achraf Hakimi |
RB | 14.5% | 7.50 | 13.3% | +9.0% | BET |
🇲🇦Hakim Ziyech |
RW | 18.2% | 5.50 | 18.2% | +0.0% | BET |
🇲🇦Youssef En-Nesyri |
ST | 21.4% | 4.50 | 22.2% | -3.6% | BET |
🇧🇷Bruno Guimarães |
CM | 14.2% | 7.00 | 14.3% | -0.7% | BET |
🇲🇦Brahim Díaz |
AM | 16.5% | 6.50 | 15.4% | +7.1% | BET |
🇧🇷Rodrygo |
RW | 19.8% | 5.00 | 20.0% | -1.0% | BET |
🇲🇦Sofyan Amrabat |
DM | 5.5% | 19.00 | 5.3% | +3.8% | BET |
All-Time Record
Brazil vs Morocco Head-to-Head
Brazil 2W · 1D · 1L · GF 5 · GA 3
19 NOV 2014
2–1
🇧🇷 Brazil · 🇲🇦 Morocco
Friendly · Diego Tardelli brace
07 JUN 1998
3–0
🇧🇷 Brazil · 🇲🇦 Morocco
WC France '98 Group · Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Bebeto
16 NOV 1997
2–0
🇧🇷 Brazil · 🇲🇦 Morocco
King Hassan II Cup · Romário & Edmundo
30 MAY 1991
0–1
🇧🇷 Brazil · 🇲🇦 Morocco
Friendly · Casablanca · Mustapha Hadji
Form Guide
Last 5 Competitive Matches
🇧🇷BrazilW-W-D-W-W
W
2–1
Jun 18
vs 🏴 Scotland
WC 2026 Group C Matchday 1
W
3–1
Mar 28, 2026
vs 🇸🇳 Senegal
Friendly
D
2–2
Mar 24, 2026
vs 🇫🇷 France
Friendly
W
2–0
Nov 15, 2025
vs 🇲🇽 Mexico
Friendly
W
4–1
Nov 11, 2025
vs 🇵🇪 Peru
WC Qualifier CONMEBOL
🇲🇦MoroccoW-W-D-W-W
W
1–0
Jun 18
vs 🇭🇹 Haiti
WC 2026 Group C Matchday 1
W
2–0
Mar 26, 2026
vs 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire
Friendly
D
1–1
Mar 23, 2026
vs 🇨🇩 DR Congo
Friendly
W
1–0
Dec 2025
vs 🇿🇲 Zambia
AFCON 2025
W
1–0
Dec 2025
vs 🇨🇩 DR Congo
AFCON 2025 R16
Player Spotlight
Key Players Analysis
🇧🇷 Brazil · Key Players
Vinícius Júnior
LWReal Madrid · Age 25 · Star
22
Goals 25/26
13
Assists
0.61
xG/90
Raphinha
RWBarcelona · Age 29 · Vice-captain
18
Goals 25/26
11
Assists
0.48
xG/90
Bruno Guimarães
CMNewcastle · Age 28 · Engine
9
Goals 25/26
5
Assists
87%
Pass acc
🇲🇦 Morocco · Key Players
Achraf Hakimi
RBPSG · Age 27 · Captain
11
Goals 25/26
8
Assists
3.2
Key pass/90
Youssef En-Nesyri
STFenerbahçe · Age 28 · Striker
19
Goals 25/26
4
Assists
0.55
xG/90
Brahim Díaz
AMReal Madrid · Age 26 · Creator
12
Goals 25/26
9
Assists
2.7
Key pass/90
Tactical Preview
Predicted Lineups & Key Duels
🇧🇷Brazil4-2-3-1
GKAlisson
DEFWesley · Marquinhos · Militão · Carlos Augusto
MIDCasemiro · Guimarães
AM/ATKRaphinha · Paquetá · Vinícius · João Pedro
🇲🇦Morocco4-3-3
GKBono
DEFHakimi · Aguerd · Saïss · Mazraoui
MIDOunahi · Amrabat · Ouahbi
ATKZiyech · En-Nesyri · Brahim Díaz
Key Individual Duels
Vinícius Júnior
BRA · LW
Achraf Hakimi
MAR · RB
Marquee duel — Vinícius's pace and dribbling vs Hakimi's tactical fouling and recovery. This is the match's deciding 1v1. Hakimi is the world's best attacking RB but defensively gambles.
Raphinha
BRA · RW
Noussair Mazraoui
MAR · LB
Tactical duel — Raphinha's inside runs vs Mazraoui's positional discipline. Brazil will overload the right side to force Morocco's CBs to shift.
Bruno Guimarães
BRA · CM
Sofyan Amrabat
MAR · DM
Engine duel — Guimarães's progressive passing vs Amrabat's destructive screening. Morocco's defensive identity hinges on Amrabat winning this matchup.
João Pedro
BRA · ST
Romain Saïss
MAR · CB
Mobility duel — João Pedro's pressing and dropping movement vs Saïss's aerial dominance. If Morocco hold Vinícius and Raphinha, the central striker becomes critical.
Best Odds for This Match
Where to Bet on Brazil vs Morocco
Odds compared for Vinícius Anytime Scorer (top AI pick)
1x
1xBet
Vinícius Anytime Scorer
2.20
PM
Parimatch
Vinícius Anytime Scorer
2.15
BC
BC.Game
Vinícius Anytime Scorer
2.12
Editorial
David Mwangi's Take
DM
African & Confederations Editor
Morocco's defensive setup under Regragui is arguably the most disciplined unit at this tournament — they conceded just 5 goals across 17 World Cup qualifiers, and AFCON 2025 saw them clean-sheet 4 of 6 matches. The two CBs (Aguerd + Saïss) plus Amrabat as defensive screen is genuinely difficult to break down. But Brazil under Ancelotti has rediscovered the Vinícius Júnior the world saw at Real Madrid in 2024 — direct, vertical, and willing to take Hakimi 1v1 repeatedly. The 2.20 on Vinícius scoring carries genuine value because the market underprices how often Brazil will force Morocco's full-backs into isolation. Vinícius averaged 0.61 xG/90 in 2025-26 La Liga, and Morocco's defensive line plays high enough that he gets 4-5 quality runs in behind. Brazil's depth in attack (Raphinha, Rodrygo, Pedro from the bench) also means Morocco can't double-team Vinícius all match. The Brazil win at 1.70 is fair value; the Vinícius scorer market is where the edge sits.
The Pick
Vinícius Júnior Anytime Scorer
2.20
Common Questions
Brazil vs Morocco FAQ
Who is the favourite — Brazil or Morocco?
Brazil is the favourite at 1.70 odds with our model rating them 56.0% to win. Morocco is rated 20.0% at 5.00 odds, with a 24.0% draw probability at 3.80. Morocco's defensive structure and 2022 SF pedigree justify their underdog-but-dangerous status.
What time does Brazil vs Morocco start?
Kickoff is 14:00 PDT at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara CA. That's 17:00 EDT (Eastern), 22:00 BST (UK), 23:00 CEST (Lisbon), 11:00 BRT (Brasília). Morocco fans should set alarms for 23:00 GMT+1.
Will Vinícius score in this match?
Our model rates Vinícius 48.5% to score (odds 2.20, edge +6.6%). At Real Madrid he averaged 22 goals + 13 assists in 2025-26, and Brazil under Ancelotti has reorganised the attack to put him in central scoring positions more often. Morocco's high defensive line is exactly the structure he beats with pace runs.
Where can I watch Brazil vs Morocco?
Coverage varies by region. In the US: Fox Sports + Telemundo. In the UK: BBC. In Brazil: Globo. In Morocco: Al Aoula. Internationally: 1xBet offers free live streaming to registered account holders. Check local broadcasters for your region.
Can Morocco repeat their 2022 World Cup run?
It's plausible. Morocco's defensive structure is statistically elite — 5 goals conceded in 17 qualifiers (0.29/match) is best-in-class among 2026 qualifiers. Their main weakness is creating chances without Hakim Ziyech (now 33) at his peak. A draw here gives them a realistic R16 path.
How does Pulse Engine v3.4 predict matches?
The model ingests 240+ data points per match including Elo ratings, last 10 matches per team, head-to-head records, lineup confidence, injury reports, weather, motivation indices, referee tendencies, and venue effects. It runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to produce probability distributions. Historical accuracy on 2024-25 matches: 64.2% on match outcome, 71.4% on goals over/under markets.
More AI Predictions