25 MAY 1972
1–1
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire · 🇩🇪 Germany (West)
Friendly · Abidjan · Only previous meeting
Pulse Engine v3.4
Updated May 22
Group E · Matchday 2
Wirtz's Liverpool form meets AFCON 2024 champions
🇩🇪FIFA #9
Germany
4x World Champions · Nagelsmann
Win
1.55
VS
Tue, 23 Jun 2026
15:00 EDT · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Draw 4.30
🇨🇮FIFA #35
Côte d'Ivoire
AFCON 2024 champions · Faé
Win
6.50
Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire — AI Prediction, Odds & Pick
Nagelsmann's Germany meets the reigning AFCON champions in a Group E matchup loaded with attacking talent. Florian Wirtz has been arguably the world's best #10 since his transfer to Liverpool last summer — 17 goals + 14 assists in 25/26. Côte d'Ivoire under Emerse Faé built their AFCON 2024 success on defensive resilience, but Germany's positional play creates chances at volume. Our model rates the match at 60.0% Germany win, 24.5% draw, 15.5% Côte d'Ivoire win.
AI Top Pick
Wirtz Anytime Scorer
Strongest edge in market · 1xBet best price
39.5%
Model Confidence
3.00
Decimal Odds
Pre-match
Match Facts & Conditions
Kickoff
15:00 EDT
15:00 EDT · 20:00 BST · 21:00 CEST
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
Competition
FIFA WC 2026
Group E · Matchday 2
AI Engine
v3.4 · 64.2% acc
10,000 Monte Carlo sims
Methodology
How Pulse Engine Built This Prediction
AI
vPulse Engine v3.4 build 2614 · build 2614
Pulse Engine — Monte Carlo Match Simulator
Ingests 240++ data points per match and runs 10,000 simulations to produce probability distributions across match outcome, score, and player props. Historical accuracy tracked publicly since v2.0 launch (2024).
10,000
Simulations
64.2%
Match Accuracy
71.4%
O/U Accuracy
240++
Input Data Points
Inputs include: E · l · o · · r · a · t · i · n · g · s · · · · · L · a · s · t · · 1 · 0 · · m · a · t · c · h · e · s · · p · e · r · · t · e · a · m · · · · · H · e · a · d · - · t · o · - · h · e · a · d · · r · e · c · o · r · d · · · · · L · i · n · e · u · p · · c · o · n · f · i · d · e · n · c · e · · · · · I · n · j · u · r · y · · & · · s · u · s · p · e · n · s · i · o · n · · d · a · t · a · · · · · W · e · a · t · h · e · r · · f · o · r · e · c · a · s · t · · · · · M · o · t · i · v · a · t · i · o · n · · i · n · d · e · x · · ( · g · r · o · u · p · · s · t · a · k · e · s · ) · · · · · R · e · f · e · r · e · e · · t · e · n · d · e · n · c · i · e · s · · · · · V · e · n · u · e · · e · f · f · e · c · t · s · · · · · x · G · · h · i · s · t · o · r · y · · · · · S · e · t · - · p · i · e · c · e · · e · f · f · i · c · i · e · n · c · y · · · · · P · r · e · s · s · i · n · g · · i · n · t · e · n · s · i · t · y · · · · · T · r · a · v · e · l · · f · a · t · i · g · u · e · ..
Match Outcome
1X2 Probability Distribution
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
🇩🇪 Germany Win
60.0%
Model probability
Market odds1.55
Implied prob64.5%
Edge-5.5%
Draw
24.5%
Model probability
Market odds4.30
Implied prob23.3%
Edge+5.4%
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire Win
15.5%
Model probability
Market odds6.50
Implied prob15.4%
Edge+0.7%
Top Recommendations
5 Best AI Picks Ranked by Edge
Edge = Model probability − Market implied probability
| # | Bet | Odds | Model % | Implied % | Edge | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florian Wirtz Anytime Scorer | 3.00 | 39.5% | 33.3% | +18.6% | Skip | BET |
| 2 | Kai Havertz Anytime Scorer | 2.40 | 42.5% | 41.7% | +1.9% | Medium | BET |
| 3 | Jamal Musiala Anytime Scorer | 2.80 | 36.8% | 35.7% | +3.1% | Skip | BET |
| 4 | Sébastien Haller Anytime Scorer | 5.50 | 18.5% | 18.2% | +1.6% | Skip | BET |
| 5 | Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Scorer | 4.00 | 24.2% | 25.0% | -3.2% | Skip | BET |
Correct Score
Score Probability Heatmap
Germany goals (rows) × Côte d'Ivoire goals (columns) · % from 10k simulations
Score Distribution Matrix
0%20%
G\C
0
1
2
3
4+
0
3.8
4.5
2.4
0.8
0.2
1
10.2
11.5
5.8
1.7
0.4
2
13.5
12.8
5.6
1.6
0.4
3
8.8
7.5
3.2
0.9
0.2
4+
2.0
1.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
Top 5 Most Likely Scorelines
2–0
13.5%
2–1
12.8%
1–1
11.5%
1–0
10.2%
3–0
8.8%
Goals Model
Expected Goals (xG) Breakdown
Modeled chance creation × conversion rate per team
🇩🇪
Germany
2.0Projected xG
Shots projected
15.2
Shots on target
5.6
Big chances
3.8
Conversion rate
13.2%
xG from set pieces
0.5
Clean sheet prob
26.8%
🇨🇮
Côte d'Ivoire
1.0Projected xG
Shots projected
9.1
Shots on target
3.3
Big chances
1.9
Conversion rate
11.0%
xG from set pieces
0.3
Clean sheet prob
11.7%
Goalscorer Markets
Top 10 Anytime Scorer Probabilities
Includes shots on target, big chances, penalty involvement, and substitution probability
| Player | Pos | Model % | Odds | Implied % | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇩🇪Florian Wirtz |
AM | 39.5% | 3.00 | 33.3% | +18.6% | BET |
🇩🇪Kai Havertz |
ST | 42.5% | 2.40 | 41.7% | +1.9% | BET |
🇩🇪Jamal Musiala |
AM | 36.8% | 2.80 | 35.7% | +3.1% | BET |
🇨🇮Sébastien Haller |
ST | 18.5% | 5.50 | 18.2% | +1.6% | BET |
🇩🇪Niclas Füllkrug |
ST | 24.2% | 4.00 | 25.0% | -3.2% | BET |
🇨🇮Simon Adingra |
LW | 16.8% | 6.00 | 16.7% | +0.6% | BET |
🇩🇪Leroy Sané |
RW | 22.5% | 4.50 | 22.2% | +1.4% | BET |
🇨🇮Franck Kessié |
CM | 11.5% | 9.00 | 11.1% | +3.6% | BET |
🇩🇪Joshua Kimmich |
CM | 9.8% | 11.00 | 9.1% | +7.7% | BET |
🇨🇮Jonathan Bamba |
RW | 12.2% | 8.50 | 11.8% | +3.4% | BET |
All-Time Record
Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire Head-to-Head
First competitive meeting
—
0–0
🇩🇪 — · 🇨🇮 —
This is the first World Cup encounter between the sides
—
0–0
🇩🇪 — · 🇨🇮 —
Germany and Côte d'Ivoire haven't met competitively in 54 years
—
0–0
🇩🇪 — · 🇨🇮 —
Both teams beat Senegal in 2025-26 friendlies (Germany 2-0, Côte d'Ivoire 1-0)
—
0–0
🇩🇪 — · 🇨🇮 —
Côte d'Ivoire reached the WC 2010 group stage; Germany have made the QF or better in 8 of last 10 WCs
Form Guide
Last 5 Competitive Matches
🇩🇪GermanyW-W-D-W-W
W
2–0
Jun 18
vs 🇸🇪 Sweden
WC 2026 Group E Matchday 1
W
3–2
Mar 28, 2026
vs 🇳🇱 Netherlands
Friendly
D
2–2
Mar 23, 2026
vs 🇮🇹 Italy
Nations League QF
W
2–0
Nov 2025
vs 🇭🇺 Hungary
Nations League
W
4–1
Oct 2025
vs 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Nations League
🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireW-W-D-W-W
W
2–1
Jun 19
vs 🇯🇵 Japan
WC 2026 Group E Matchday 1
W
1–0
Mar 26, 2026
vs 🇸🇳 Senegal
Friendly
D
0–0
Mar 22, 2026
vs 🇲🇦 Morocco
Friendly
W
1–0
Nov 2025
vs 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso
WC Qualifier CAF
W
3–0
Nov 2025
vs 🇿🇲 Zambia
WC Qualifier CAF
Player Spotlight
Key Players Analysis
🇩🇪 Germany · Key Players
Florian Wirtz
AMLiverpool · Age 23 · Star
17
Goals 25/26
14
Assists
0.58
xG/90
Jamal Musiala
AMBayern Munich · Age 23 · Creator
16
Goals 25/26
11
Assists
0.52
xG/90
Joshua Kimmich
CMBayern Munich · Age 31 · Captain
5
Goals 25/26
10
Assists
91%
Pass acc
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire · Key Players
Sébastien Haller
STUtrecht · Age 31 · Captain
14
Goals 25/26
5
Assists
0.51
xG/90
Simon Adingra
LWBrighton · Age 24 · Winger
11
Goals 25/26
9
Assists
4.8
Drbl/90
Franck Kessié
CMAl-Ahli · Age 29 · Engine
8
Goals 25/26
4
Assists
2.9
Tackles/90
Tactical Preview
Predicted Lineups & Key Duels
🇩🇪Germany4-2-3-1
GKTer Stegen
DEFKimmich · Rüdiger · Tah · Raum
MIDGoretzka · Andrich
AM/ATKSané · Wirtz · Musiala · Havertz
🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire4-3-3
GKY. Fofana
DEFSingo · Ndicka · Boly · G. Konan
MIDKessié · S. Fofana · Diakité
ATKBamba · Haller · Adingra
Key Individual Duels
Florian Wirtz
GER · AM
Seko Fofana
CIV · CM
Marquee duel — Wirtz's between-lines reception vs Fofana's mobile screening. Côte d'Ivoire's central press needs Fofana to track Wirtz; if he gets dragged wide, Germany finds 3-on-2 in the half-space.
Jamal Musiala
GER · AM
Wilfried Singo
CIV · RB
Dribble duel — Musiala's 5.4 dribbles/90 vs Singo's positional defending. Germany's left-side overloads with Raum + Musiala create the most quality chances.
Simon Adingra
CIV · LW
Joshua Kimmich
GER · RB
Pace duel — Adingra's 4.8 dribbles/90 vs Kimmich now playing RB. Kimmich's positional discipline holds, but Adingra is Côte d'Ivoire's main outlet to break Germany's press.
Sébastien Haller
CIV · ST
Antonio Rüdiger
GER · CB
Hold-up duel — Haller's back-to-goal play vs Rüdiger's aggressive front-foot defending. If Haller can pin Rüdiger, Côte d'Ivoire's midfield runners get space.
Best Odds for This Match
Where to Bet on Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire
Odds compared for Wirtz Anytime Scorer (top AI pick)
1x
1xBet
Wirtz Anytime Scorer
3.00
PM
Parimatch
Wirtz Anytime Scorer
2.93
BC
BC.Game
Wirtz Anytime Scorer
2.90
Editorial
Marco Rossi's Take
MR
European Football Editor
Germany under Nagelsmann is genuinely back to top-tier — they reached the Euro 2024 quarterfinals and have looked dominant throughout 2025-26 Nations League play. The Wirtz-Musiala combination is what separates this side from the post-2014 Germany sides — both players are now 23, both peak-aged for a World Cup, and both are coming off the best club seasons of their careers. Côte d'Ivoire are not pushovers — AFCON 2024 champions, comfortable in possession, and Sébastien Haller back from his cancer recovery as a genuine #9 threat. But the gap in attacking quality is significant. Germany averaged 16+ shots per match in qualifying and their xG/match is 2.0+ against opposition outside the top 15. The 3.00 on Wirtz scoring is generous given his 17 goals + 14 assists at Liverpool this season — model says 39.5%, market 33.3%. Côte d'Ivoire's 4-3-3 leaves space exactly where Wirtz wants to receive and turn. Match outcome flag at 60% Germany is fair value too; the draw at 4.30 is slightly underpriced.
The Pick
Florian Wirtz Anytime Scorer
3.00
Common Questions
Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire FAQ
Who is the favourite — Germany or Côte d'Ivoire?
Germany is the favourite at 1.55 odds with our model rating them 60.0% to win. Côte d'Ivoire is rated 15.5% at 6.50 odds, with a 24.5% draw probability at 4.30. The draw represents modest value at +5.4% edge.
What time does Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire start?
Kickoff is 15:00 EDT at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami. That's 12:00 PDT (Pacific), 20:00 BST (UK), 21:00 CEST (Berlin), 19:00 GMT (Abidjan). Miami in late June will be hot and humid — Germany have prepared with afternoon training sessions all month.
Will Florian Wirtz score in this match?
Our model rates Wirtz 39.5% to score (odds 3.00, edge +18.6%). After his summer 2025 transfer to Liverpool he posted 17 goals + 14 assists in 25/26 Premier League. Côte d'Ivoire's 4-3-3 leaves vulnerability in the half-spaces where Wirtz makes his late runs.
Where can I watch Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire?
Coverage varies by region. In the US: Fox Sports + Telemundo. In the UK: BBC. In Germany: ARD. In Côte d'Ivoire: RTI 1. Internationally: 1xBet offers free live streaming to registered account holders. Check local broadcasters for your region.
Can Côte d'Ivoire pull off an upset?
Possible but not probable. The AFCON 2024 champions have improved significantly under Emerse Faé, but the gap in attacking depth is significant. Their best path is a tight 0-1 or 1-1 with Haller scoring a set-piece header. Most likely scenario is a 2-0 or 2-1 Germany win.
How does Pulse Engine v3.4 predict matches?
The model ingests 240+ data points per match including Elo ratings, last 10 matches per team, head-to-head records, lineup confidence, injury reports, weather, motivation indices, referee tendencies, and venue effects. It runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to produce probability distributions. Historical accuracy on 2024-25 matches: 64.2% on match outcome, 71.4% on goals over/under markets.
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