Group A opens the 2026 FIFA World Cup on June 11 at the historic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Mexico enters as the group favourite at 1.85, with South Korea (3.20) the main challenger thanks to Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in and a strong midfield core.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF–GA | Pts | Qualification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇲🇽 Mexico |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5–2 | 7 | 94% |
| 2 | 🇰🇷 South Korea |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4–3 | 4 | 72% |
| 3 | 🇨🇿 Czech Republic |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3–3 | 4 | 38% |
| 4 | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1–5 | 1 | 8% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 🇰🇷 South Korea | 🇨🇿 Czech. | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | — | 7W–3D–1L | 2W–1D–1L | 4W–1D–0L |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 1W–3D–7L | — | 2W–0D–1L | 3W–1D–1L |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | 1W–1D–2L | 1W–0D–2L | — | 1W–0D–0L |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0W–1D–4L | 1W–1D–3L | 0W–0D–1L | — |
Home advantage at Estadio Azteca (94% home win rate WC matches) plus highest squad value drives the projection. Model gives South Korea 28% to top the group.
VIEW FULL PREDICTION →Mexico 64.5% to win, 22.1% draw, 13.4% South Africa win. Expected goals: Mexico 1.8, South Africa 0.7. Mexico clean sheet probability 48%.
VIEW FULL PREDICTION →South Korea second at 1.40 is the value here. Mexico will top the group — that's already priced in. But with Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in and Kim Min-jae, Korea has the squad to push past Czech Republic and South Africa comfortably. The 1.40 line on their qualification has room to compress closer to kick-off.
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