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Group D Host-led group · Jun 12-25 Last updated May 22, 2026

World Cup 2026 Group D — USA, Paraguay, Turkey, Australia

Group D pairs co-host USA (1.75) with three challengers from three confederations. Turkey (3.20) brings Euro 2024 quarterfinal momentum and Arda Güler, Paraguay (5.00) returns to the World Cup after a 16-year absence, and Australia (6.50) targets a third consecutive R16 appearance.

Teams

CONCACAF · UEFA · CONMEBOL · AFC

Matches

Jun 12 – 25, 2026

Opening Match

Jun 12

USA vs Australia · SoFi

Group Favourite

USA 1.75

57% implied probability

USA

CONCACAF · Host

FIFA Rank #16

Last 5 W W D L W

Key Player Christian Pulisic

Best WC 3rd 1930 · QF 2002

Coach Mauricio Pochettino

Group Winner 1.75

Turkey

UEFA · Euro 2024 QF

FIFA Rank #25

Last 5 W L W W D

Key Player Arda Güler

Best WC 3rd 2002

Coach Vincenzo Montella

Group Winner 3.20

Paraguay

CONMEBOL

FIFA Rank #50

Last 5 D W L W D

Key Player Miguel Almirón

Best WC QF 2010

Coach Gustavo Alfaro

Group Winner 5.00

Australia

AFC

FIFA Rank #30

Last 5 W D L W L

Key Player Jackson Irvine

Best WC R16 2006, 2022

Coach Tony Popovic

Group Winner 6.50

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF–GA	Pts	Qualification
1	🇺🇸 USA	3	2	1	0	5–2	7	90%
2	🇹🇷 Turkey	3	1	2	0	4–2	5	76%
3	🇵🇾 Paraguay	3	1	1	1	3–3	4	42%
4	🇦🇺 Australia	3	0	1	2	1–6	1	10%

Jun

20:00 PDT

USA 🇺🇸

🇦🇺 Australia

Home

1.45

Draw

4.30

Away

7.00

SoFi Stadium Los Angeles 🇺🇸

Jun

15:00 EDT

Turkey 🇹🇷

🇵🇾 Paraguay

Home

2.00

Draw

3.30

Away

3.80

Gillette Stadium Boston 🇺🇸

Jun

18:00 CDT

USA 🇺🇸

🇹🇷 Turkey

Home

2.30

Draw

3.30

Away

2.90

Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City 🇺🇸

Jun

15:00 EDT

Paraguay 🇵🇾

🇦🇺 Australia

Home

2.20

Draw

3.20

Away

3.20

Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia 🇺🇸

Jun

18:00 PDT

Paraguay 🇵🇾

🇺🇸 USA

Home

3.80

Draw

3.40

Away

1.95

Levi's Stadium Santa Clara 🇺🇸

Jun

18:00 PDT

Australia 🇦🇺

🇹🇷 Turkey

Home

3.20

Draw

3.20

Away

2.20

Hard Rock Stadium Miami 🇺🇸

Group Winner

1st place finish

🇺🇸 USA

1.75

🇹🇷 Turkey

3.20

🇵🇾 Paraguay

5.00

🇦🇺 Australia

6.50

To Qualify

Top 2 or best 3rd

🇺🇸 USA

1.15

🇹🇷 Turkey

1.45

🇵🇾 Paraguay

2.30

🇦🇺 Australia

3.40

Top Scorer in Group

Most goals scored

🇺🇸 Christian Pulisic

4.00

🇺🇸 Folarin Balogun

4.50

🇹🇷 Arda Güler

5.50

🇹🇷 Kerem Aktürkoğlu

7.00

🇵🇾 Miguel Almirón

8.00

	🇺🇸 USA	🇹🇷 Turkey	🇵🇾 Paraguay	🇦🇺 Australia
🇺🇸 USA	—	1W–1D–1L	4W–1D–2L	2W–1D–0L
🇹🇷 Turkey	1W–1D–1L	—	0W–1D–0L	1W–0D–1L
🇵🇾 Paraguay	2W–1D–4L	0W–1D–0L	—	1W–0D–0L
🇦🇺 Australia	0W–1D–2L	1W–0D–1L	0W–0D–1L	—

Pulse Engine v3.4 Predictions

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 64.2% historical accuracy

Group Winner Prediction

🇺🇸

USA

Avg simulated points: 6.4 · GD +1.8

Confidence55.2%

Home advantage at SoFi, Levi's, and Arrowhead plus Pochettino's tactical evolution drives the projection. Turkey at 28% is the closest challenger thanks to Arda Güler's Real Madrid season and Montella's compact 4-3-3.

VIEW FULL PREDICTION →

Group Decider · USA vs Turkey

🇺🇸

Over 2.5 Goals

Recommended bet · Odds 1.85

Confidence66.5%

USA 41% to win, 28% draw, 31% Turkey win. Expected goals: USA 1.6, Turkey 1.3. Both teams average 2.8+ goals per match in the 2026 cycle. Press-oriented setups produce open games.

VIEW FULL PREDICTION →

Sarah Mitchell

US Sports Lead

Turkey to qualify at 1.45 is the bet. Euro 2024 quarterfinal run showed they can hang with elite opposition tactically. Arda Güler now has a full Real Madrid season behind him, plus the Çalhanoğlu-Akaydın midfield axis controls tempo. Even if USA wins the group, Turkey should beat Paraguay and Australia comfortably to lock in second.

The Pick

Turkey To Qualify

1.45

Los Angeles 🇺🇸

SoFi Stadium

Capacity: — · —

Jun 12 · USA vs AUS

Boston 🇺🇸

Gillette Stadium

Capacity: — · —

Jun 13 · TUR vs PAR

Kansas City 🇺🇸

Arrowhead Stadium

Capacity: — · —

Jun 18 · USA vs TUR

Philadelphia 🇺🇸

Lincoln Financial Field

Capacity: — · —

Jun 19 · PAR vs AUS

Santa Clara 🇺🇸

Levi's Stadium

Capacity: — · —

Jun 25 · PAR vs USA

Miami 🇺🇸

Hard Rock Stadium

Capacity: — · —

Jun 25 · AUS vs TUR

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Which teams are in World Cup 2026 Group D?

Group D contains USA (co-host), Turkey (Euro 2024 quarter-finalists), Paraguay (back at the WC after 2010), and Australia. USA opens the group against Australia at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles.

Who is the favourite to win Group D?

USA is the favourite at 1.75 odds thanks to host status and Mauricio Pochettino's tactical project. Turkey (3.20) is the strongest challenger after their Euro 2024 quarterfinal run with Arda Güler. Paraguay (5.00) and Australia (6.50) round out the field.

When does Group D start?

Group D starts on June 12, 2026 with USA vs Australia at SoFi Stadium. The decisive USA vs Turkey match takes place June 18 at Arrowhead Stadium. Final matchday is June 25 with simultaneous fixtures: Paraguay vs USA (Levi's) and Australia vs Turkey (Hard Rock).

Who is the top scorer favourite in Group D?

Christian Pulisic (USA) leads at 4.00 odds, narrowly ahead of Folarin Balogun (4.50). Arda Güler (Turkey) is 5.50, with Kerem Aktürkoğlu (7.00) and Miguel Almirón (Paraguay, 8.00) completing the top five. Goals likely split between USA's attacking duo.

Can Turkey upset USA?

The Jun 18 head-to-head is rated at 31% for a Turkey win and 28% draw — combined 59% non-USA result. Turkey's recent form against top sides is strong (Euro QF run including Austria win). Both teams press high and average 2.8+ goals per game, making this the highest-variance match in the group.

Has Australia won a knockout match at the World Cup?

No. Australia has reached the Round of 16 twice (2006 and 2022) but lost both knockout matches — to Italy 1-0 in 2006 (controversial penalty) and Argentina 2-1 in 2022. The Socceroos have never advanced to the quarter-finals.

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Group C

🇧🇷 Brazil · 🇲🇦 Morocco · 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland · 🇭🇹 Haiti

Next Group →

Group E

🇩🇪 Germany · 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire · 🇪🇨 Ecuador · 🇨🇼 Curaçao